It Was Just a Black Swan How to “Prove” Things Chapter 18: The Uncertainty of the PhonyĬan Philosophers Be Dangerous to Society? Where Is the Gray Swan? Chapter 17: Locke’s Madmen, or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places The Logic of Fractal Randomness (with a Warning) The Poet of Randomness The Platonicity of TrianglesĪ Visual Approach to Extremistan/Mediocristan Reversals Away from Extremistan Chapter 15: The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual FraudĪ (Literary) Thought Experiment on Where the Bell Curve Comes From PART THREE: THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTANĬhapter 14: From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and Back The Idea of Positive Accident Volatility and Risk of Black Swan Monsieur de Montaigne, Epistemocrat EpistemocracyĬhapter 13: Appelles the Painter, or What Do You Do if You Cannot Predict? The Grueness of Emerald That Great Anticipation Machine Chapter 12: Epistemocracy, a Dream How to Predict Your Predictions! The Nth Billiard Ball The Beauty of Technology: Excel Spreadsheetsĭon’t Cross a River if It Is (on Average) Four Feet Deep Information Is Bad for Knowledge The Expert Problem, or the Tragedy of the Empty Suit On the Vagueness of Catherine’s Lover Count Black Swan Blindness Redux Guessing and Predicting I Am a Black Swan: The Anthropic Bias The Cosmetic Because Chapter 9: The Ludic Fallacy, or The Uncertainty of the Nerdįrom Yogi Berra to Henri Poincaré Chapter 10: The Scandal of Prediction The Teflon-style Protection of Giacomo Casanova “I Am a Risk Taker” The Story of the Drowned Worshippers The Cemetery of Letters Human Nature, Happiness, and Lumpy RewardsĮl desierto de los tártaros Bleed or BlowupĬhapter 8: Giacomo Casanova’s Unfailing Luck: The Problem of Silent Evidence
To Be Wrong with Infinite Precision Dispassionate ScienceĬhapter 7: Living in the Antechamber of Hope Remembrance of Things Not Quite Past The Madman’s Narrative Narrative and Therapy On the Causes of My Rejection of Causes Splitting Brains How to Learn from the Turkey Trained to Be Dull A Black Swan Is Relative to KnowledgeĪ Brief History of the Black Swan Problem Scalability and Globalization Travels Inside MediocristanĬhapter 4: One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker The Best (Worst) Advice Beware the Scalable The Advent of Scalability PART ONE: UMBERTO ECO’S ANTILIBRARY, OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATIONĬhapter 1: The Apprenticeship of an Empirical SkepticĬhapter 3: The Speculator and the Prostitute Xvi xviii xix xx xxi xxiii xxiv xxv xxvi xxvii On the Plumage of Birds What You Do Not Know Experts and “Empty Suits” Learning to LearnĪ New Kind of Ingratitude Life Is Very Unusual Plato and the Nerd Too Dull to Write About The Bottom Line Chapters Map To Benoît Mandelbrot, a Greek among Romans Uncertainty (Information theory)-Social aspects. Contents: Part one-Umberto Eco’s antilibrary, or how we seek validation-Part two-We just can’t predict-Part three- Those gray swans of extremistan-Part four-The end. Includes bibliographical references and index. The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable / Nassim Nicholas Taleb. eISBN: 978-1-58836-583-5 library of congress cataloging-in-publication data Taleb, Nassim. Random House and colophon are registered trademarks of Random House, Inc. Published in the United States by Random House, an imprint of The Random House Publishing Group, a division of Random House, Inc., New York. This book has been optimized for viewing at a monitor setting of 1024 x 768 pixels.Ĭopyright © 2007 by Nassim Nicholas Taleb All rights reserved. A L S O B Y N A S S I M N I C H O L A S TA L E B
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